Qualification · Qualification 20
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
75.83 – 175.92
22%78%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
64 – 55
Prediction missed · off by 66.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 158.8 ±13.3
Season APEX 67Event APEX 61.25Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 19.85Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 49.3Event APEX -5.27Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 303.8 ±11.7
Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 14.31Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 97.5Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 64.11Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5857, 4984, 6885
30
/ 100 compatProjected
75.8 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 5857, 4984, 6885
Auto
-5.7 0%
Teleop
44.8 67%
Endgame
28.2 42%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10586, 5474, 9730
67
/ 100 compatProjected
175.9 pts
~2.1 RP (district)
Teams: 10586, 5474, 9730
Auto
28.0 17%
Teleop
88.3 54%
Endgame
47.8 29%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.06
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score75.8pts
Blue projected score175.9pts
Red win probability22%
Event bonus sample178alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 47%, blue 43%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -100.1
- Score range
- 49–203
- Upset likelihood
- 22%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
158.8Season APEX303.8
-5.7Auto28
44.8Teleop88.3
28.2Endgame47.8
39Consistency61
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 8 | 16 |
| teleop | 41 | 23 |
| endgame | 0 | 16 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 64 | 55 |
Result
Final score
64 – 55
Prediction missed · off by 66.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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