Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.89 – 272.85

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 44.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.8 ±12.8

8521CyberLions

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX -39.15Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3020SMbld

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 75.99Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 9.05Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 412.2 ±14.5

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 182.23Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 65.23Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10336BHA Tigers

Season APEX 43Event APEX 25.39Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8521, 3020, 5805

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8521, 3020, 5805

Auto

9.6 15%

Teleop

24.8 40%

Endgame

27.6 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3476, 4276, 10336

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3476, 4276, 10336

Auto

26.7 10%

Teleop

180.7 66%

Endgame

66.7 24%

Strengths

· 3476 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45.9pts

Blue projected score272.8pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -227
Score range: 18–301
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 153.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.8Season APEX412.2

9.6Auto26.7

24.8Teleop180.7

27.6Endgame66.7

0Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	78
teleop	17	89
endgame	0	13
foul	0	20
total	30	200

Result

Final score

30 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 44.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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