Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.93 – 125.98

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 89 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.1 ±10.5

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 25.51Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8891Wild Raccoons

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 84.64Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX -15.22Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.8 ±10.5

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 106.5Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4984Bullseye

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 7.94Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 11.54Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4322, 8891, 7157

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4322, 8891, 7157

Auto

32.1 29%

Teleop

35.1 31%

Endgame

44.4 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4201, 4984, 3309

/ 100 compat

Projected

126 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4201, 4984, 3309

Auto

16.7 13%

Teleop

82.7 63%

Endgame

32.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.9pts

Blue projected score126pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31
Score range: 66–155
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 159.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.1Season APEX385.8

32.1Auto16.7

35.1Teleop82.7

44.4Endgame32.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	15
teleop	130	104
endgame	32	80
foul	0	0
total	200	199

Result

Final score

200 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 89 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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