Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
168.78 – 64.18
79%21%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
42 – 141
Prediction missed · off by 101.8 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 163.7 ±12.1
Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 146.66Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 83.6Event APEX -23.79Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 45.91Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.7 ±11
Season APEX 133Event APEX 11.51Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 12.98Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 39.69Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8891, 9271, 4984
67
/ 100 compatProjected
168.8 pts
~2.1 RP (district)
Teams: 8891, 9271, 4984
Auto
56.2 33%
Teleop
63.2 37%
Endgame
51.4 30%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6695, 5805, 7447
43
/ 100 compatProjected
64.2 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 6695, 5805, 7447
Auto
21.6 35%
Teleop
24.6 40%
Endgame
15.6 25%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.01
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score168.8pts
Blue projected score64.2pts
Red win probability79%
Event bonus sample178alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 104.6
- Score range
- 35–198
- Upset likelihood
- 21%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
163.7Season APEX293.7
56.2Auto21.6
63.2Teleop24.6
51.4Endgame15.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 12 | 31 |
| teleop | 13 | 91 |
| endgame | 17 | 19 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 42 | 141 |
Result
Final score
42 – 141
Prediction missed · off by 101.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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