Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.71 – 113.45

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

131 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 63.4 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.5 ±10.4

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 17.55Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 0.48Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 66.68Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.4 ±12.8

5835Sage Hill Robotics

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 66.68Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 31.14Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9730Metal Maniacs

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 15.63Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10586, 3309, 115

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10586, 3309, 115

Auto

18.5 23%

Teleop

37.6 46%

Endgame

25.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5835, 7157, 9730

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5835, 7157, 9730

Auto

17.6 16%

Teleop

70.7 63%

Endgame

23.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.7pts

Blue projected score113.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.7
Score range: 54–144
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 164 vs event baseline 172.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.5Season APEX231.4

18.5Auto17.6

37.6Teleop70.7

25.4Endgame23.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	13
teleop	94	13
endgame	20	7
foul	0	0
total	131	33

Result

Final score

131 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 63.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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