Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
215.72 – 114.84
78%22%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
401 – 113
Prediction correct · off by 93.6 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 435.6 ±11.7
Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 117.08Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 21.71Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 76.93Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.2 ±12.8
Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 20.29Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 17.62Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 76.93Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3476, 6072, 4141
79
/ 100 compatProjected
215.7 pts
~2.2 RP (district)
Teams: 3476, 6072, 4141
Auto
23.3 11%
Teleop
124.9 58%
Endgame
65.6 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 13%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5514, 2658, 4276
59
/ 100 compatProjected
114.8 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 5514, 2658, 4276
Auto
24.9 22%
Teleop
57.9 51%
Endgame
31.0 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 13%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.96
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score215.7pts
Blue projected score114.8pts
Red win probability78%
Event bonus sample178alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 47%, blue 44%
Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 100.9
- Score range
- 86–245
- Upset likelihood
- 22%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
435.6Season APEX218.2
23.3Auto24.9
124.9Teleop57.9
65.6Endgame31
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 29 | 10 |
| teleop | 293 | 91 |
| endgame | 79 | 12 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 401 | 113 |
Result
Final score
401 – 113
Prediction correct · off by 93.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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