Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

636.41 – 310.55

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

712 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 83 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 834 ±9.3

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 344.61Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 41.05Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 250.75Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 552.6 ±9.3

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 147.71Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX -0.57Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 163.41Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4414, 3309, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

636.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4414, 3309, 3476

Auto

127.1 20%

Teleop

346.4 55%

Endgame

154.5 25%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4322, 10586, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4322, 10586, 4201

Auto

51.4 17%

Teleop

163.8 55%

Endgame

81.3 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.83 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score636.4pts

Blue projected score310.6pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 325.9
Score range: 278–669
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1113 vs event baseline 185.8.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

834Season APEX552.6

127.1Auto51.4

346.4Teleop163.8

154.5Endgame81.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	150	60
teleop	398	161
endgame	149	165
foul	15	15
total	712	401

Result

Final score

712 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 83 pts

Match videos

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