FIRST California Northern State Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

534.92 – 557.55

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

432 – 368

Prediction missed · off by 146.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 970.5 ±8.7

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 52.21Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 210.57Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 272.14Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 841.4 ±9.3

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 191.7Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 193.61Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 172.24Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6665, 1678, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

534.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6665, 1678, 9470

Auto

120.7 23%

Teleop

298.5 57%

Endgame

101.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8, 841, 5026

/ 100 compat

Projected

557.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8, 841, 5026

Auto

92.4 17%

Teleop

325.0 59%

Endgame

135.2 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.78 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score534.9pts

Blue projected score557.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 50%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.6
Score range: 467–626
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 800 vs event baseline 377.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

970.5Season APEX841.4

120.7Auto92.4

298.5Teleop325

101.7Endgame135.2

71Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	122	103
teleop	213	139
endgame	92	126
foul	5	0
total	432	368

Result

Final score

432 – 368

Prediction missed · off by 146.2 pts

Match videos

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