FIRST California Northern State Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

851.08 – 616.29

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

796 – 551

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1132 ±8.7

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 153.93Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 314.4Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 382.75Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 898.8 ±8.7

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 162.59Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 252.99Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 200.71Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6238, 1323, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

851.1 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6238, 1323, 254

Auto

169.5 20%

Teleop

460.6 55%

Endgame

204.8 25%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 55%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 846, 3045, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

616.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 846, 3045, 581

Auto

114.5 19%

Teleop

336.0 55%

Endgame

162.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 55%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.14 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score851.1pts

Blue projected score616.3pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 55%, blue 54%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 234.8
Score range: 549–918
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1347 vs event baseline 374.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1132Season APEX898.8

169.5Auto114.5

460.6Teleop336

204.8Endgame162.3

57Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	193	123
teleop	418	271
endgame	185	137
foul	0	20
total	796	551

Result

Final score

796 – 551

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.