FIRST California Northern State Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

449.94 – 568.43

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

321 – 535

Prediction correct · off by 81.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 747 ±9.3

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 66.42Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 175.25Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 208.27Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 951.6 ±8.7

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 195.5Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 155.66Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 217.27Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6962, 2813, 4698

/ 100 compat

Projected

449.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6962, 2813, 4698

Auto

88.9 20%

Teleop

221.7 51%

Endgame

126.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6036, 3501, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

568.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6036, 3501, 5940

Auto

89.1 16%

Teleop

290.4 52%

Endgame

178.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.55 · Blue 2.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score449.9pts

Blue projected score568.4pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 45%, blue 43%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.5
Score range: 383–635
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 856 vs event baseline 374.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

747Season APEX951.6

88.9Auto89.1

221.7Teleop290.4

126.7Endgame178.2

80Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	133
teleop	146	298
endgame	107	104
foul	0	0
total	321	535

Result

Final score

321 – 535

Prediction correct · off by 81.2 pts

Match videos

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