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Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
FIRST California Northern State Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

562.48 – 429.95

84%16%
Actual result
Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

550 – 575

Prediction missed · off by 78.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 957.3 ±8.7
2073EagleForce
A+
Season APEX 315Event APEX 185.21Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
1868Space Cookies
A+
Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 198.51Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
604Quixilver
S
Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 178.76Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 794.7 ±8.7
971Spartan Robotics
A
Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 135.82Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
3256WarriorBorgs
A
Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 137.25Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
972Iron Claw
B
Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 156.88Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2073, 1868, 604
86
/ 100 compat
Projected
562.5 pts
~2.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2073, 1868, 604
Auto
121.4 22%
Teleop
280.6 50%
Endgame
154.8 28%
Strengths
  • · Well-balanced across phases
  • · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 72%
Supercharged: 43%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 971, 3256, 972
72
/ 100 compat
Projected
430 pts
~1.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 971, 3256, 972
Auto
71.5 17%
Teleop
234.2 55%
Endgame
119.3 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 72%
Supercharged: 43%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.86 · Blue 1.41
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score562.5pts
Blue projected score430pts
Red win probability84%
Event bonus sample272alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 72%, blue 65%
Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 42%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
132.5
Score range
363–629
Upset likelihood
16%
Data cutoff
2026-08-15
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset
Close match
High scoring
Playoff

Combined score 1125 vs event baseline 372.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

957.3Season APEX794.7
121.4Auto71.5
280.6Teleop234.2
154.8Endgame119.3
56Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto137109
teleop249262
endgame164189
foul015
total550575

Result

Final score

550 – 575

Prediction missed · off by 78.8 pts

Match videos

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