FIRST California Northern State Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

591.58 – 571.52

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

486 – 495

Prediction missed · off by 91.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 951.6 ±8.7

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 202.63Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 164Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 224.95Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 841.4 ±9.3

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 197.39Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 197.88Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 176.25Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6036, 3501, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

591.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6036, 3501, 5940

Auto

96.4 17%

Teleop

311.3 54%

Endgame

169.9 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8, 841, 5026

/ 100 compat

Projected

571.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8, 841, 5026

Auto

103.8 18%

Teleop

341.1 60%

Endgame

124.9 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.29 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score591.6pts

Blue projected score571.5pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 50%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.1
Score range: 505–659
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 981 vs event baseline 371.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

951.6Season APEX841.4

96.4Auto103.8

311.3Teleop341.1

169.9Endgame124.9

102Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	51
teleop	209	255
endgame	216	174
foul	0	15
total	486	495

Result

Final score

486 – 495

Prediction missed · off by 91.1 pts

Match videos

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