FIRST California Northern State Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

482.02 – 459.87

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

698 – 432

Prediction correct · off by 121.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 970.5 ±8.7

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 33.52Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 193.21Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 255.29Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 747 ±9.3

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 71.15Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 177.13Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 211.59Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6665, 1678, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

482 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6665, 1678, 9470

Auto

108.6 23%

Teleop

264.8 57%

Endgame

90.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6962, 2813, 4698

/ 100 compat

Projected

459.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6962, 2813, 4698

Auto

88.0 19%

Teleop

243.3 54%

Endgame

121.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.06 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score482pts

Blue projected score459.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 45%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.1
Score range: 393–549
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1130 vs event baseline 370.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

970.5Season APEX747

108.6Auto88

264.8Teleop243.3

90.2Endgame121.4

96Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	161	97
teleop	388	153
endgame	149	152
foul	0	30
total	698	432

Result

Final score

698 – 432

Prediction correct · off by 121.9 pts

Match videos

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