FIRST California Northern State Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

610.87 – 417.72

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

619 – 485

Prediction correct · off by 37.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 898.8 ±8.7

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 161.97Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 252.27Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 196.63Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 794.7 ±8.7

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 130.83Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 132.33Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 154.56Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 846, 3045, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

610.9 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 846, 3045, 581

Auto

111.1 18%

Teleop

339.7 56%

Endgame

157.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 54%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 971, 3256, 972

/ 100 compat

Projected

417.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 971, 3256, 972

Auto

63.5 15%

Teleop

220.6 53%

Endgame

129.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 54%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.1 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score610.9pts

Blue projected score417.7pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 54%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 193.1
Score range: 352–677
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1104 vs event baseline 368.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

898.8Season APEX794.7

111.1Auto63.5

339.7Teleop220.6

157Endgame129.5

51Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	130	102
teleop	300	288
endgame	184	90
foul	5	5
total	619	485

Result

Final score

619 – 485

Prediction correct · off by 37.7 pts

Match videos

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