Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
846.73 – 521.51
98%2%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
869 – 707
Prediction correct · off by 103.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 1132 ±8.7
Season APEX 285Event APEX 149.95Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 314.08Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 382.7Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 957.3 ±8.7
Season APEX 315Event APEX 173.09Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 184.01Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 164.41Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6238, 1323, 254
87
/ 100 compatProjected
846.7 pts
~3.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6238, 1323, 254
Auto
166.9 20%
Teleop
460.6 55%
Endgame
202.7 24%
Strengths
- · 254 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 67%
Supercharged: 55%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2073, 1868, 604
86
/ 100 compatProjected
521.5 pts
~1.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2073, 1868, 604
Auto
123.9 24%
Teleop
257.1 50%
Endgame
132.9 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 67%
Supercharged: 55%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.2 · Blue 1.22
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score846.7pts
Blue projected score521.5pts
Red win probability98%
Event bonus sample272alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 67%, blue 72%
Supercharged bonusred 55%, blue 43%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 325.2
- Score range
- 456–913
- Upset likelihood
- 2%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
1132Season APEX957.3
166.9Auto123.9
460.6Teleop257.1
202.7Endgame132.9
86Consistency82
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 183 | 111 |
| teleop | 454 | 357 |
| endgame | 217 | 239 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 869 | 707 |
Result
Final score
869 – 707
Prediction correct · off by 103.9 pts
Match videos
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