FIRST California Northern State Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

520.27 – 471.72

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

656 – 383

Prediction correct · off by 112.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 970.5 ±8.7

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 49.49Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 204.2Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 266.58Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 794.7 ±8.7

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 150.66Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 151.93Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 169.13Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6665, 1678, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

520.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6665, 1678, 9470

Auto

118.9 23%

Teleop

282.6 55%

Endgame

108.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 971, 3256, 972

/ 100 compat

Projected

471.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 971, 3256, 972

Auto

79.9 17%

Teleop

248.5 53%

Endgame

137.5 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score520.3pts

Blue projected score471.7pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.5
Score range: 403–589
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1039 vs event baseline 381.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

970.5Season APEX794.7

118.9Auto79.9

282.6Teleop248.5

108.4Endgame137.5

80Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	135	65
teleop	344	163
endgame	172	150
foul	5	5
total	656	383

Result

Final score

656 – 383

Prediction correct · off by 112.2 pts

Match videos

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