FIRST California Northern State Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

463.15 – 566.78

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

526 – 501

Prediction missed · off by 64.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 794.7 ±8.7

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 147.56Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 149.4Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 166.19Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 951.6 ±8.7

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 195.57Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 156.36Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 214.85Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 971, 3256, 972

/ 100 compat

Projected

463.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 971, 3256, 972

Auto

79.9 18%

Teleop

247.2 54%

Endgame

129.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6036, 3501, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

566.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6036, 3501, 5940

Auto

97.9 18%

Teleop

289.1 52%

Endgame

171.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.52 · Blue 2.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score463.2pts

Blue projected score566.8pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 43%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -103.6
Score range: 394–636
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1027 vs event baseline 380.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

794.7Season APEX951.6

79.9Auto97.9

247.2Teleop289.1

129.4Endgame171.5

100Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	142
teleop	256	262
endgame	188	87
foul	0	10
total	526	501

Result

Final score

526 – 501

Prediction missed · off by 64.3 pts

Match videos

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