FIRST California Northern State Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

845.69 – 518.63

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

653 – 523

Prediction correct · off by 98.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1132 ±8.7

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 152.93Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 312.3Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 380.46Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 970.5 ±8.7

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 49.09Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 203.5Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 266.04Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6238, 1323, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

845.7 pts

~3.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6238, 1323, 254

Auto

173.0 21%

Teleop

456.6 55%

Endgame

202.5 24%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 55%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6665, 1678, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

518.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6665, 1678, 9470

Auto

121.1 24%

Teleop

285.3 56%

Endgame

99.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 55%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.2 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score845.7pts

Blue projected score518.6pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 55%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 327.1
Score range: 451–914
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1176 vs event baseline 379.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1132Season APEX970.5

173Auto121.1

456.6Teleop285.3

202.5Endgame99.9

50Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	195	109
teleop	340	263
endgame	88	151
foul	30	0
total	653	523

Result

Final score

653 – 523

Prediction correct · off by 98.5 pts

Match videos

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