FIRST California Northern State Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

525.95 – 457.28

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

408 – 496

Prediction missed · off by 78.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 841.4 ±9.3

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 182.38Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 182.84Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 160.73Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 794.7 ±8.7

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 145.8Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 146.6Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 164.88Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8, 841, 5026

/ 100 compat

Projected

526 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8, 841, 5026

Auto

94.2 18%

Teleop

294.1 56%

Endgame

133.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 50%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 971, 3256, 972

/ 100 compat

Projected

457.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 971, 3256, 972

Auto

77.2 17%

Teleop

240.7 53%

Endgame

132.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 50%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.62 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score526pts

Blue projected score457.3pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 50%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.7
Score range: 389–594
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 904 vs event baseline 378.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

841.4Season APEX794.7

94.2Auto77.2

294.1Teleop240.7

133.4Endgame132.4

64Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	94
teleop	209	282
endgame	138	115
foul	15	5
total	408	496

Result

Final score

408 – 496

Prediction missed · off by 78.3 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.