FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 99

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

383.74 – 264.16

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

469 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 101.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 781.6 ±9.3

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 164.12Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 50.71Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 168.91Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 536.5 ±10.4

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 17.48Rank 35Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 118.72Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 127.96Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5026, 5817, 2073

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.7 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5026, 5817, 2073

Auto

70.6 19%

Teleop

210.0 56%

Endgame

95.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3598, 5507, 3970

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3598, 5507, 3970

Auto

57.7 21%

Teleop

154.6 57%

Endgame

56.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.75 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score383.7pts

Blue projected score264.2pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 44%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.6
Score range: 199–449
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 615 vs event baseline 363.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

781.6Season APEX536.5

70.6Auto57.7

210Teleop154.6

95.9Endgame56.7

55Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	145	45
teleop	210	55
endgame	114	46
foul	0	0
total	469	146

Result

Final score

469 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 101.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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