FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 98

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

463.42 – 255.21

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

352 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 90.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 644.5 ±9.3

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 176.23Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 132.22Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 154.97Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.3 ±9.8

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 49.44Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 12.91Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 192.86Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 846, 971, 7419

/ 100 compat

Projected

463.4 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 846, 971, 7419

Auto

75.6 17%

Teleop

262.9 57%

Endgame

119.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6305, 4135, 4698

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6305, 4135, 4698

Auto

71.8 29%

Teleop

99.4 40%

Endgame

78.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.02 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score463.4pts

Blue projected score255.2pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 46%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 208.2
Score range: 189–529
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 676 vs event baseline 364.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

644.5Season APEX479.3

75.6Auto71.8

262.9Teleop99.4

119.5Endgame78.7

66Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	59
teleop	184	151
endgame	115	69
foul	0	45
total	352	324

Result

Final score

352 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 90.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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