FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 97

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

251.17 – 555.95

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

189 – 444

Prediction correct · off by 87.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.5 ±10.4

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 64.46Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 78.11Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 108.6Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 837.5 ±9.3

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 154.49Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 209.9Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 191.56Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6962, 8033, 114

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6962, 8033, 114

Auto

42.9 18%

Teleop

160.8 66%

Endgame

39.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8048, 581, 1868

/ 100 compat

Projected

556 pts

~3.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8048, 581, 1868

Auto

143.5 26%

Teleop

277.7 50%

Endgame

133.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.18 · Blue 3.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score251.2pts

Blue projected score556pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 78%

Supercharged bonusred 44%, blue 46%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -304.8
Score range: 185–622
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 633 vs event baseline 364.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.5Season APEX837.5

42.9Auto143.5

160.8Teleop277.7

39.3Endgame133.4

111Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	83
teleop	69	261
endgame	59	95
foul	0	5
total	189	444

Result

Final score

189 – 444

Prediction correct · off by 87.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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