FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 96

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.49 – 598.95

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 708

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258 ±10.4

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -14.06Rank 57Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 54.97Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 34.58Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 878.4 ±9.3

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 93.98Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 374.82Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 130.15Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4990, 6662, 253

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4990, 6662, 253

Auto

48.0 60%

Teleop

31.7 40%

Endgame

0.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5104, 254, 6238

/ 100 compat

Projected

599 pts

~3.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5104, 254, 6238

Auto

111.2 19%

Teleop

318.7 53%

Endgame

166.8 28%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.88 · Blue 3.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score75.5pts

Blue projected score599pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 50%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -523.5
Score range: 9–665
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 773 vs event baseline 364.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258Season APEX878.4

48Auto111.2

31.7Teleop318.7

0.1Endgame166.8

146Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	92
teleop	27	415
endgame	3	156
foul	0	45
total	65	708

Result

Final score

65 – 708

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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