FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 95

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

331.34 – 520.3

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

286 – 497

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 627 ±9.8

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 203.06Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 57.05Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 71.23Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 745.1 ±9.3

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 76.24Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 156.39Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 287.67Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1678, 10339, 192

/ 100 compat

Projected

331.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1678, 10339, 192

Auto

64.7 20%

Teleop

191.3 59%

Endgame

66.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 649, 3501, 3045

/ 100 compat

Projected

520.3 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 649, 3501, 3045

Auto

56.3 11%

Teleop

288.7 56%

Endgame

170.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score331.3pts

Blue projected score520.3pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 45%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -189
Score range: 265–586
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 783 vs event baseline 364.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

627Season APEX745.1

64.7Auto56.3

191.3Teleop288.7

66.1Endgame170.5

116Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	106
teleop	122	271
endgame	149	120
foul	0	0
total	286	497

Result

Final score

286 – 497

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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