FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 94

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

358.1 – 176.76

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 608.8 ±9.8

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 38.61Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 244.01Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 75.48Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.9 ±10.4

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 18.82Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 41.26Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 116.68Rank 32Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7137, 5940, 1967

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.1 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7137, 5940, 1967

Auto

57.4 16%

Teleop

162.4 46%

Endgame

132.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6814, 5700, 9400

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6814, 5700, 9400

Auto

34.5 20%

Teleop

101.1 60%

Endgame

33.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.84 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score358.1pts

Blue projected score176.8pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 181.3
Score range: 111–424
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 365.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

608.8Season APEX344.9

57.4Auto34.5

162.4Teleop101.1

132.6Endgame33.6

70Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	32
teleop	129	53
endgame	67	53
foul	0	30
total	256	168

Result

Final score

256 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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