FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 93

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

246.62 – 295.7

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

486 – 368

Prediction missed · off by 155.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.2 ±9.8

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 101.21Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 82.76Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 62.65Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 486.7 ±10.4

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 17.32Rank 60Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 175.51Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 102.87Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3257, 3256, 840

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3257, 3256, 840

Auto

69.4 29%

Teleop

82.2 35%

Endgame

85.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5419, 841, 7667

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5419, 841, 7667

Auto

43.9 15%

Teleop

163.0 54%

Endgame

95.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.87 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score246.6pts

Blue projected score295.7pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 46%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.1
Score range: 181–362
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 854 vs event baseline 365.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.2Season APEX486.7

69.4Auto43.9

82.2Teleop163

85.8Endgame95.2

74Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	127	54
teleop	212	197
endgame	147	112
foul	0	5
total	486	368

Result

Final score

486 – 368

Prediction missed · off by 155.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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