FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 92

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

309.13 – 389.27

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

373 – 682

Prediction correct · off by 178.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552 ±10.4

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 133.11Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 58.48Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 117.54Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 740.3 ±9.8

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 274.82Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 79.67Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 34.78Rank 53Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1671, 8793, 2135

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1671, 8793, 2135

Auto

50.8 17%

Teleop

181.8 59%

Endgame

73.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1323, 670, 115

/ 100 compat

Projected

389.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1323, 670, 115

Auto

90.7 24%

Teleop

165.6 44%

Endgame

118.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.77 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score309.1pts

Blue projected score389.3pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 45%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.1
Score range: 244–454
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1055 vs event baseline 363.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552Season APEX740.3

50.8Auto90.7

181.8Teleop165.6

73.5Endgame118.9

96Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	108
teleop	192	422
endgame	118	152
foul	0	0
total	373	682

Result

Final score

373 – 682

Prediction correct · off by 178.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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