FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 91

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

510.15 – 407.98

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

515 – 468

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 772.7 ±9.3

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 247.67Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 94.88Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 167.6Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 815.6 ±8.7

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 59.46Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 132.44Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 216.08Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9470, 6418, 972

/ 100 compat

Projected

510.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9470, 6418, 972

Auto

96.7 19%

Teleop

282.3 55%

Endgame

132.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6665, 604, 8

/ 100 compat

Projected

408 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6665, 604, 8

Auto

73.3 19%

Teleop

231.2 59%

Endgame

89.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.63 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score510.2pts

Blue projected score408pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.2
Score range: 343–575
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 983 vs event baseline 361.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

772.7Season APEX815.6

96.7Auto73.3

282.3Teleop231.2

132.6Endgame89.9

86Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	55
teleop	258	239
endgame	172	159
foul	15	15
total	515	468

Result

Final score

515 – 468

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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