FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 90

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

498.83 – 300.81

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

557 – 437

Prediction correct · off by 97.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 813.1 ±9.3

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 154.73Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 150.92Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 193.18Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 635 ±9.8

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 36Rank 29Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 65.13Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 199.68Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5026, 7419, 6036

/ 100 compat

Projected

498.8 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5026, 7419, 6036

Auto

102.2 21%

Teleop

295.4 60%

Endgame

92.9 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1072, 8033, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1072, 8033, 581

Auto

66.0 23%

Teleop

164.6 56%

Endgame

62.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score498.8pts

Blue projected score300.8pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 47%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 198
Score range: 236–564
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 994 vs event baseline 360.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

813.1Season APEX635

102.2Auto66

295.4Teleop164.6

92.9Endgame62.2

61Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	132	99
teleop	296	212
endgame	109	96
foul	20	30
total	557	437

Result

Final score

557 – 437

Prediction correct · off by 97.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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