FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211.09 – 211.09

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 210

Prediction missed · off by 37.1 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.5 ±9.8

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX -Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX -Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX -Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509 ±9.8

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX -Rank 35Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX -Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX -Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 766, 6962, 6665

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 766, 6962, 6665

Auto

63.3 30%

Teleop

105.5 50%

Endgame

42.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3598, 4698, 5700

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3598, 4698, 5700

Auto

63.3 30%

Teleop

105.5 50%

Endgame

42.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score211.1pts

Blue projected score211.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 135–287
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 422.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

476.5Season APEX509

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	65
teleop	60	94
endgame	54	51
foul	0	0
total	138	210

Result

Final score

138 – 210

Prediction missed · off by 37.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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