FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 89

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

217.64 – 698.72

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

309 – 788

Prediction correct · off by 90.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 564.5 ±9.8

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 120.74Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 58.46Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 38.44Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1028.7 ±8.7

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 161.41Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 375.33Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 161.98Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 971, 6962, 6305

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 971, 6962, 6305

Auto

47.7 23%

Teleop

116.6 55%

Endgame

46.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2073, 254, 2813

/ 100 compat

Projected

698.7 pts

~3.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2073, 254, 2813

Auto

101.7 15%

Teleop

386.8 56%

Endgame

199.9 29%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.9 · Blue 3.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score217.6pts

Blue projected score698.7pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 56%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -481.1
Score range: 154–763
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1097 vs event baseline 358.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

564.5Season APEX1028.7

47.7Auto101.7

116.6Teleop386.8

46.3Endgame199.9

65Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	138
teleop	183	418
endgame	84	227
foul	0	5
total	309	788

Result

Final score

309 – 788

Prediction correct · off by 90.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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