FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 88

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

477.91 – 303.52

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

448 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 894 ±9.3

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 209.85Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 131.64Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 136.42Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 530.2 ±9.8

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 41.88Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 190.34Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 71.3Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1678, 3970, 6238

/ 100 compat

Projected

477.9 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1678, 3970, 6238

Auto

86.5 18%

Teleop

262.9 56%

Endgame

122.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 253, 1868, 192

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 253, 1868, 192

Auto

112.1 37%

Teleop

133.7 44%

Endgame

55.4 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.93 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score477.9pts

Blue projected score303.5pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 174.4
Score range: 240–542
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 799 vs event baseline 357.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

894Season APEX530.2

86.5Auto112.1

262.9Teleop133.7

122.8Endgame55.4

113Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	75
teleop	266	172
endgame	81	104
foul	0	0
total	448	351

Result

Final score

448 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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