FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 87

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.01 – 354.29

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 438

Prediction correct · off by 63.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.7 ±10.4

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 84.46Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 62.55Rank 49Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -6Rank 57Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 561.2 ±9.8

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 107.32Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 11.28Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 235.69Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 649, 2204, 4990

/ 100 compat

Projected

141 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 649, 2204, 4990

Auto

36.1 26%

Teleop

75.2 54%

Endgame

28.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 114, 6814, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.3 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 114, 6814, 5940

Auto

39.8 12%

Teleop

194.1 56%

Endgame

111.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1 · Blue 2.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score141pts

Blue projected score354.3pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -213.3
Score range: 76–419
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 535 vs event baseline 358.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.7Season APEX561.2

36.1Auto39.8

75.2Teleop194.1

28.9Endgame111

80Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	89
teleop	65	207
endgame	11	142
foul	0	0
total	97	438

Result

Final score

97 – 438

Prediction correct · off by 63.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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