Qualification · Qualification 86
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
258.54 – 353
24%76%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
343 – 429
Prediction correct · off by 80.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 481.6 ±10.4
Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 170.79Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 44.68Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 43.07Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 730.1 ±9.3
Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 159.11Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 114.6Rank 32Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 79.29Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 841, 5700, 5817
59
/ 100 compatProjected
258.5 pts
~1.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 841, 5700, 5817
Auto
59.5 23%
Teleop
123.6 48%
Endgame
73.7 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 30%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3501, 9400, 3256
61
/ 100 compatProjected
353 pts
~2.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3501, 9400, 3256
Auto
37.0 11%
Teleop
185.7 57%
Endgame
104.2 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 30%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.45 · Blue 2.72
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score258.5pts
Blue projected score353pts
Red win probability24%
Event bonus sample272alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 66%, blue 71%
Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 46%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -94.5
- Score range
- 194–418
- Upset likelihood
- 24%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
481.6Season APEX730.1
59.5Auto37
123.6Teleop185.7
73.7Endgame104.2
132Consistency66
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 42 | 68 |
| teleop | 165 | 207 |
| endgame | 136 | 154 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 343 | 429 |
Result
Final score
343 – 429
Prediction correct · off by 80.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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