FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 84

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

197.21 – 228.52

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

149 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455 ±9.8

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 25.79Rank 35Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 68.58Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 102.84Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 496.8 ±10.4

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 47.47Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 79.76Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 101.29Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3598, 6665, 6418

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3598, 6665, 6418

Auto

35.0 18%

Teleop

101.0 52%

Endgame

58.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7137, 670, 3257

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7137, 670, 3257

Auto

40.3 19%

Teleop

87.5 41%

Endgame

86.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.65 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score197.2pts

Blue projected score228.5pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.3
Score range: 132–294
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 395 vs event baseline 359.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455Season APEX496.8

35Auto40.3

101Teleop87.5

58.9Endgame86.7

115Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	99
teleop	107	66
endgame	21	81
foul	0	0
total	149	246

Result

Final score

149 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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