FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 83

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

460.06 – 306.89

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

536 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 46.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 759.7 ±8.7

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 122.89Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 161.38Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 175.79Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 447.7 ±10.4

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 99.5Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 87.29Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 120.1Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 604, 972, 846

/ 100 compat

Projected

460.1 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 604, 972, 846

Auto

88.0 19%

Teleop

262.0 57%

Endgame

107.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5104, 1967, 2135

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5104, 1967, 2135

Auto

41.1 13%

Teleop

157.4 51%

Endgame

107.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.89 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score460.1pts

Blue projected score306.9pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 79%

Supercharged bonusred 44%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 153.2
Score range: 242–525
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 825 vs event baseline 358.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

759.7Season APEX447.7

88Auto41.1

262Teleop157.4

107.1Endgame107.6

72Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	39
teleop	307	157
endgame	139	93
foul	0	0
total	536	289

Result

Final score

536 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 46.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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