FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

327.86 – 350.22

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

414 – 338

Prediction missed · off by 49.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 616.1 ±9.8

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 266.17Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 56.86Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 4.83Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 542.8 ±9.8

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 216.27Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 58.34Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 75.61Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1323, 10339, 4135

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1323, 10339, 4135

Auto

96.9 30%

Teleop

137.7 42%

Endgame

92.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8, 6662, 840

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8, 6662, 840

Auto

60.3 18%

Teleop

169.5 51%

Endgame

105.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.82 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score327.9pts

Blue projected score350.2pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.4
Score range: 264–414
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 752 vs event baseline 358.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

616.1Season APEX542.8

96.9Auto60.3

137.7Teleop169.5

92.8Endgame105.7

89Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	82
teleop	260	196
endgame	63	60
foul	0	0
total	414	338

Result

Final score

414 – 338

Prediction missed · off by 49.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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