FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

394.99 – 337.46

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

199 – 344

Prediction missed · off by 101.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 618 ±9.8

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 42.44Rank 60Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 79.83Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 272.72Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509.5 ±10.4

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 50.77Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 125.93Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 160.76Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5419, 8793, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

395 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5419, 8793, 9470

Auto

96.2 25%

Teleop

187.4 48%

Endgame

105.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 766, 5507, 8048

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 766, 5507, 8048

Auto

74.3 22%

Teleop

189.9 56%

Endgame

76.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score395pts

Blue projected score337.5pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.5
Score range: 272–460
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 543 vs event baseline 359.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

618Season APEX509.5

96.2Auto74.3

187.4Teleop189.9

105.5Endgame76.2

129Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	56
teleop	87	148
endgame	30	140
foul	0	0
total	199	344

Result

Final score

199 – 344

Prediction missed · off by 101.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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