FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

164 – 444.79

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 540

Prediction correct · off by 108.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.4 ±10.4

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 60.2Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 21.35Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 82.45Rank 49Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 821.3 ±9.3

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 178.08Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 146.24Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 120.47Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6305, 6814, 2204

/ 100 compat

Projected

164 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6305, 6814, 2204

Auto

53.6 33%

Teleop

74.0 45%

Endgame

35.5 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1868, 5026, 3970

/ 100 compat

Projected

444.8 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1868, 5026, 3970

Auto

118.6 27%

Teleop

226.6 51%

Endgame

100.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.8 · Blue 3.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score164pts

Blue projected score444.8pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 43%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -280.8
Score range: 99–510
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 582 vs event baseline 360.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.4Season APEX821.3

53.6Auto118.6

74Teleop226.6

35.5Endgame100.3

37Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	173
teleop	15	289
endgame	5	78
foul	0	0
total	42	540

Result

Final score

42 – 540

Prediction correct · off by 108.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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