FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

423.21 – 191.24

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

568 – 465

Prediction correct · off by 209.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 837.1 ±9.3

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 140.54Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 193.94Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 88.73Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 552.7 ±9.8

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 53.77Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 129.88Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 7.59Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2813, 1678, 114

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.2 pts

~3.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2813, 1678, 114

Auto

61.9 15%

Teleop

269.8 64%

Endgame

89.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 53%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3256, 7419, 5700

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3256, 7419, 5700

Auto

59.2 31%

Teleop

93.7 49%

Endgame

36.6 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 53%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.17 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score423.2pts

Blue projected score191.2pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 53%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 232
Score range: 127–487
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1033 vs event baseline 358.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

837.1Season APEX552.7

61.9Auto59.2

269.8Teleop93.7

89Endgame36.6

133Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	103
teleop	312	243
endgame	142	99
foul	15	20
total	568	465

Result

Final score

568 – 465

Prediction correct · off by 209.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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