FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

521.08 – 552.87

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

316 – 502

Prediction correct · off by 128 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 886.8 ±9.3

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 170.99Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 209.05Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 141.04Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 899.6 ±8.7

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 242.66Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 168.32Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 141.89Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6238, 6036, 1671

/ 100 compat

Projected

521.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6238, 6036, 1671

Auto

74.1 14%

Teleop

297.6 58%

Endgame

143.4 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5940, 3501, 971

/ 100 compat

Projected

552.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5940, 3501, 971

Auto

67.3 13%

Teleop

273.7 51%

Endgame

196.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.02 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score521.1pts

Blue projected score552.9pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 45%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.8
Score range: 457–617
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 818 vs event baseline 357.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

886.8Season APEX899.6

74.1Auto67.3

297.6Teleop273.7

143.4Endgame196.6

110Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	27
teleop	214	300
endgame	43	160
foul	0	15
total	316	502

Result

Final score

316 – 502

Prediction correct · off by 128 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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