FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

209.54 – 213.02

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

214 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 438.6 ±10.4

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 89.55Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 41.89Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 78.1Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 524.3 ±9.3

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 45.73Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 180.5Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -13.21Rank 57Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 670, 253, 8033

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 670, 253, 8033

Auto

36.8 20%

Teleop

65.1 35%

Endgame

83.9 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6665, 4698, 4990

/ 100 compat

Projected

213 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6665, 4698, 4990

Auto

66.0 32%

Teleop

73.6 36%

Endgame

64.5 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score209.5pts

Blue projected score213pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.5
Score range: 145–278
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 551 vs event baseline 358.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

438.6Season APEX524.3

36.8Auto66

65.1Teleop73.6

83.9Endgame64.5

188Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	73
teleop	126	164
endgame	15	95
foul	0	5
total	214	337

Result

Final score

214 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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