FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

445.86 – 612.42

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

455 – 259

Prediction missed · off by 181.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 733.6 ±9.8

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 41.3Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 33.32Rank 29Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 371.24Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 830.5 ±9.3

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 324.46Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 124.95Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 163.01Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5817, 1072, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

445.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5817, 1072, 254

Auto

74.0 17%

Teleop

217.3 50%

Endgame

141.2 33%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3045, 1967, 604

/ 100 compat

Projected

612.4 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3045, 1967, 604

Auto

103.0 17%

Teleop

340.1 56%

Endgame

166.5 27%

Strengths

· 3045 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.35 · Blue 2.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score445.9pts

Blue projected score612.4pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -166.6
Score range: 381–677
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 714 vs event baseline 358.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

733.6Season APEX830.5

74Auto103

217.3Teleop340.1

141.2Endgame166.5

108Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	122	54
teleop	205	145
endgame	103	60
foul	25	0
total	455	259

Result

Final score

455 – 259

Prediction missed · off by 181.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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