FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

512.15 – 318.61

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

489 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 16.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 694.2 ±9.3

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 218.82Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 177.9Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 115.43Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 465.5 ±10.4

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 159.78Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 110.39Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 48.44Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 581, 846, 2135

/ 100 compat

Projected

512.2 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 581, 846, 2135

Auto

93.0 18%

Teleop

272.0 54%

Endgame

139.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 841, 6418, 6662

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 841, 6418, 6662

Auto

63.8 20%

Teleop

191.2 60%

Endgame

66.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.04 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score512.2pts

Blue projected score318.6pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 46%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 193.5
Score range: 255–576
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 817 vs event baseline 357.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

694.2Season APEX465.5

93Auto63.8

272Teleop191.2

139.9Endgame66.3

90Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	57
teleop	297	134
endgame	98	137
foul	0	0
total	489	328

Result

Final score

489 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 16.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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