FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

245.05 – 407.15

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

376 – 411

Prediction correct · off by 67.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 491.7 ±10.4

115MVRT

Season APEX 146.7Event APEX 10.7Rank 53Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 150.09Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 84.26Rank 32Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 638 ±9.8

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 89.29Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 218.19Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 99.67Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 115, 8048, 9400

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 115, 8048, 9400

Auto

43.3 18%

Teleop

128.3 55%

Endgame

62.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3257, 8, 5104

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.2 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3257, 8, 5104

Auto

66.1 16%

Teleop

234.6 58%

Endgame

105.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.38 · Blue 3.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score245.1pts

Blue projected score407.2pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 50%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -162.1
Score range: 181–471
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 787 vs event baseline 357.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

491.7Season APEX638

43.3Auto66.1

128.3Teleop234.6

62.8Endgame105.8

93Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	90
teleop	219	195
endgame	114	121
foul	0	5
total	376	411

Result

Final score

376 – 411

Prediction correct · off by 67.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.