FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

332.08 – 174.56

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

440 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 90.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.5 ±9.8

701RoboVikes

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 63.34Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 151.8Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 116.94Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 444.7 ±10.4

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 74.18Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 61.94Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 38.44Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 701, 972, 5507

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.1 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 701, 972, 5507

Auto

61.1 18%

Teleop

186.9 55%

Endgame

93.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 840, 6962, 10339

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 840, 6962, 10339

Auto

46.1 27%

Teleop

83.8 49%

Endgame

39.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.93 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score332.1pts

Blue projected score174.6pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 157.5
Score range: 110–397
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 687 vs event baseline 359.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.5Season APEX444.7

61.1Auto46.1

186.9Teleop83.8

93.3Endgame39.5

109Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	32
teleop	307	137
endgame	89	78
foul	0	0
total	440	247

Result

Final score

440 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 90.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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