FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

413.93 – 454.69

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

441 – 460

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 647.7 ±9.8

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 254.17Rank 3Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 72.74Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 87.02Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 821.3 ±9.3

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 166.19Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 18.55Rank 35Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 269.95Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1323, 8793, 649

/ 100 compat

Projected

413.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1323, 8793, 649

Auto

105.1 26%

Teleop

189.1 47%

Endgame

112.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2073, 3598, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

454.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2073, 3598, 9470

Auto

77.3 17%

Teleop

241.8 54%

Endgame

129.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.89 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score413.9pts

Blue projected score454.7pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 47%, blue 47%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.8
Score range: 349–520
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 901 vs event baseline 358.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

647.7Season APEX821.3

105.1Auto77.3

189.1Teleop241.8

112Endgame129.1

64Consistency133

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	86
teleop	199	277
endgame	100	97
foul	30	0
total	441	460

Result

Final score

441 – 460

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.