FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

270.96 – 331.91

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

232 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 22 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 602.2 ±9.8

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 147.2Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 22.74Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 101.02Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 594.9 ±9.8

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 88.17Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 206.05Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 37.69Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5026, 5700, 670

/ 100 compat

Projected

271 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5026, 5700, 670

Auto

58.3 23%

Teleop

144.0 56%

Endgame

53.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 114, 6036, 253

/ 100 compat

Projected

331.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 114, 6036, 253

Auto

71.2 22%

Teleop

190.5 58%

Endgame

64.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.52 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score271pts

Blue projected score331.9pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61
Score range: 206–397
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 569 vs event baseline 359.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

602.2Season APEX594.9

58.3Auto71.2

144Teleop190.5

53.6Endgame64.6

146Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	63
teleop	152	182
endgame	49	87
foul	0	5
total	232	337

Result

Final score

232 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 22 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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