FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

309.8 – 357.62

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

220 – 386

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.1 ±9.8

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 49.57Rank 29Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 65.79Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 194.44Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 654.4 ±9.3

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 72.66Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 46.98Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 237.98Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1072, 6305, 1868

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1072, 6305, 1868

Auto

99.0 33%

Teleop

136.1 45%

Endgame

68.1 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8033, 6665, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8033, 6665, 5940

Auto

65.7 19%

Teleop

155.3 44%

Endgame

128.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.65 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score309.8pts

Blue projected score357.6pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.8
Score range: 245–423
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 606 vs event baseline 360.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.1Season APEX654.4

99Auto65.7

136.1Teleop155.3

68.1Endgame128.3

63Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	48
teleop	51	189
endgame	65	109
foul	0	40
total	220	386

Result

Final score

220 – 386

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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