FIRST California Northern State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

258.17 – 177.99

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.2 ±10.4

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 95.68Rank 32Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 130.8Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 31.69Rank 60Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.9 ±9.8

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -17.61Rank 57Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 150.83Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 44.77Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9400, 1967, 5419

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9400, 1967, 5419

Auto

50.2 21%

Teleop

134.5 55%

Endgame

58.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4990, 971, 766

/ 100 compat

Projected

178 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4990, 971, 766

Auto

39.4 23%

Teleop

68.7 40%

Endgame

65.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.47 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score258.2pts

Blue projected score178pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample272alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.2
Score range: 113–323
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 360.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.2Season APEX459.9

50.2Auto39.4

134.5Teleop68.7

58.5Endgame65.4

83Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	28
teleop	119	74
endgame	115	61
foul	0	0
total	248	163

Result

Final score

248 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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